Tuesday January 14, 2025
“The first method for estimating the intelligence of a ruler is to look at the men he has around him.” – Niccolo Machiavelli
Introduction
Federalism was introduced as a system of governance in Somalia to accommodate competing interests, manage conflicts and forge unity. However, it continues to suffer setbacks due to a lack of essential ingredients that can allow the system to flourish in a post-conflict environment. According to Nigerian scholar, Adeola Gabriel, the concept of federalism has a rich philosophical background spanning from the 17th century, through the Enlightenment Age, to the 19th century[1].
Eighteenth-century theorists of federalism include German philosopher Immanuel Kant and American statesman Alexander Hamilton. Kant identified federalism as “the value aspect of peace,” while Hamilton emphasized the systems’ “main institutional features.” [2] Kant called for an international federation among free states to secure perpetual global peace, while Hamilton, an American nationalist, advocated for federalism within specific republics.
Anglo-Saxon scholar K.C. Wheare is largely regarded as the doyen of contemporary federalism. His 1946 book, Federal Government, remains canonical in the field and is still recited frequently in the present-day academic domain. Wheare defined federalism as “the method of dividing powers so that the general (federal) and regional (state) governments are each, within a sphere, coordinate and independent.” He argued that federalism requires “coordinate partners in the governmental process.” He believed that federalism is not an end in itself but rather a means to good government and that achieving that end requires adherence to the spirit as well as the letter of a federal constitution. [3]”
Wheare who championed the Legal Institutional Theory of federalism, identified the formal institutional requisites and conditions that can make federalism work. As noted by Amadi (et-al), these include:
a) The existence of an independent judiciary and supreme court system; b) Multi-party system; c) Rigid and written constitution; d) Division of powers and functions; e) Financial autonomy; f) Independent electoral systems for both levels of government and g) Bi-cameral legislature[4].
Evolution of Federalism
Federalism in any given jurisdiction can go through significant eras and events. In the United States, Federalism has undergone several phases of evolution during which the relationship between the federal and state governments has varied. In the era of dual federalism (1789-1901), both levels of government stayed within their own jurisdictional spheres. During the era of cooperative federalism (1901 – 1960), the federal government became active in policy areas previously handled by the states. The late 1960s and early 1970s ushered in an era of new federalism that significantly decentralized policy management. While the American Civil War almost led to the union's dissolution, US federalism survived as federalist forces initiated viable reforms that built a resilient social order. Likewise, in Somalia, federalism can successfully evolve in different stages, but like in the US, federal evolution has to be rooted in democratic principles, constitutionalism and the rule of law.
According to Timothy J. Conlan, a Political Science Professor at George Mason University who specializes in Federalism and Public Policy Analysis, the maintenance of a federal arrangement requires “a political balance of power between the central and regional levels of government, and such balance is continually challenged by economic, technological, social, and political changes over time. [5]”
Somalislavia
Given recent setbacks in the governance and security fronts, Somalo–pessimists are predicting the loading of Somalislavia, an alarmist term that refers to the balkanization of Somalia into independent, self-governing mini-states or clan fiefdoms. Arguing that federalism in Somalia is in mortal danger, proponents of this school of thought continue to compare it with the former Yugoslavia's disintegration. They point to political fragmentation, factionalism and worsening Federal-State relations. The long-running political standoff between Villa Somalia and Puntland continues to feed the emergent Somalislavic rhetoric. Another development that reinforces this view is the ongoing constitutional crisis that has pushed Puntland to declare it would operate as a functionally independent state till the completion of the constitution through referendum.
Puntland’s prolonged absence from the National Consultative Council is worrisome to both the Somalislavist thinkers and well-meaning citizens. Worse still, Puntland’s recent announcement that it would adopt its own legal tender (currency) has thrown Somalia’s fiscal regime into disarray. Although President Deni has made assurances that the action will not signify a break from Somali Unity, the move is seen as a direct challenge to the federal government, further escalating the tension between Villa Somalia and Garowe.
Even more disturbing is the ongoing hostilities between Villa Somalia and Jubaland. After defying a federal directive that delegitimized the Southern State’s electoral process, Ahmed Madobe was re-elected as Jubaland’s State President for a third term, incurring the wrath of Villa Somalia. The situation quickly escalated as the Federal government deployed troops in Somalia’s deepest south, Raskamboni, while Jubaland responded with its own deployment to counter the Federal forces.
The mid-December direct military clashes in Raskamboni, between Federal government elite troops and Jubaland security forces, as well as the ensuing deadly firefight in Dollow that resulted in heavy casualties, is seen by the doomsayers as the new dawn of Somal. Beyond Puntland and Jubaland, communal clashes in Hirshabelle are emerging as another element ingrained in the mindset of the Somalislavists.
It is important to acknowledge that neither the actions of the Federal Government of Somalia nor those of Puntland, / Jubaland / Hirshabelle should be construed as fuelling Somalislavia. However, Somalo-pessimists may seize upon the worsening security situation, widening Federal-State rifts, and ongoing political stalemate to advance their Somalislavist verbosity. The biggest threat to Somali sovereignty is the unintended consequences of a failing federal system coupled with a collapsing security architecture that may allow armed non-state actors to carve up Somalia into anarchic, ungovernable enclaves.
The deteriorating security situation across large swathes of South-Central Somalia comes at a time when the Puntland Security Forces (PSF) are battling ISS jihadists in the Bari region. The terrorists’ numbers have recently swelled due to an influx of foreign fighters, including Moroccans, Tunisians, Saudis, Tanzanians, Yemenis, etc, clearly illustrating the internationalization of ISIS’s Somalia chapter. A brazen attack on a Puntland Military base by a dozen foreign suicide bombers was repelled by the gallant PSF. With the Somali National Army (SNA) out of the equation owing to the Mogadishu-instigated Federal-State political squabbles, Puntland alone is left to shoulder the burden of defending Somalia against a resurgent ISIS. The lack of a united national front in the fight against ISIS and Al-Qaeda-linked Al-Shabab poses an existential threat to Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Despite the lurking dangers of Somalislavia, Somalo-optimists have rightfully rejected the doomsayers’ balkanistic posture, noting it is foolhardy to make comparisons between Somalia and Yugoslavia. They observe that Yugoslavia’s propensity for dissolution was rooted in the state's conflicting and often tense ethno-nationalist nature comprising Serbs, Croats, Bosnians, Slovenians and Montenegrins. This is unlike the makeup of Somalia, a homogenous society boasting of one ethnic group, language, culture and religion. The resilience of the Somali nation is such that even after the state collapse in 1991, the country, which experienced a devastating protracted conflict, did not break into fiefdoms. Instead, Somalis picked up the pieces, gradually rebuilt national institutions and transitioned into the current federal order in 2012.
According to the US State Department, varied reasons for Yugoslavia’s breakup ranged from the cultural and religious divisions between the ethnic groups making up the nation to the memories of WWII atrocities committed by all sides to centrifugal nationalist forces[6]. External factors like the collapse of communism and the imminent collapse of the Soviet Union further precipitated the disintegration of Yugoslavia. The situation was made worse by Slobodan Milosevic, Serbia’s president from 1989, who “took advantage of the vacuum created by a progressively weakening central state and brutally deployed the use of Serbian ultra-nationalism to fan the flames of conflict in the other republics to gain legitimacy at home. [7]”
According to Ethio-pessimists, the closet to the Yugoslavian scenario in the Horn of Africa is what is erstwhile termed “Ethioslavia” (breakup of Ethiopia), given that Ethiopia, unlike heterogeneous Somalia, is made up of diverse nationalities including Somalis, Oromos, Amhara, Tigrayans, Afar etc. While we totally abhor the very mention of Somalislavia, we equally do not wish for the downfall of our brotherly Ethiopian neighbours. Somalia and Ethiopia shall remain resilient in the face of historical adversities as they continue to forge a durable partnership in the security sector and on other fronts.
Somalislavia aside, Somalia still exhibits the indicators of state failure identified by Robert I. Rotberg, an American academic and professor in Governance and International Affairs. These indicators include “flawed institutions, excessive executive powers, and the existence of legislative bodies that act as rubber-stamping machines where democratic debate is noticeably absent.” Other elements include “a judiciary serving as a derivative of the executive rather than being independent, a bureaucracy deprived of its professional responsibility and exist solely to carry out the orders of the executive and armed forces that are highly politicized ostensibly deployed to suppress or eliminate regime opponents.”[8]
A New Political Roadmap for Somalia
In conferring urgent and immediate solutions to Somalia’s political deadlock and security woes, I draw upon my experience during the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia – 2011- 2012, when I served as a Senior Advisor of the then Somali Prime Minister, Dr. Abdiweli Mohamed where I worked closely with the Transitional Federal Institutions to ensure the benchmarks of the National Political Roadmap were implemented.
Revisiting the roadmap is critically important because the collective efforts by Somali Federal and Regional States, political actors, civil society and the international community were instrumental in eliciting the goodwill and cooperation of all parties. Worth noting is the fact that Somali technocrats played a decisive role in the roadmap that helped deliver Somalia’s provisional constitution, setting up the framework for institution-building and other measures that intensified Somalia’s transition to the federal order.
The September 2011 Mogadishu task force meeting on the implementation of the roadmap was a major milestone in rebuilding Somali governing institutions and the trust among the people of Somalia. It contributed to a serious and genuine political dialogue between the Transitional Federal Institutions, the Regional State administrations and political actors inside the country. The meeting renewed the efforts of the UN, AU, and regional and international partners to support Somalia's transition to democracy.
The task force that acted in an advisory role brought synergy between various ministries, international partners, local actors and other stakeholders. Sadly, that level of synergy has quickly eroded and is not reflected in today’s government activities and related functions. There is a need to rekindle that synergy as a renewed avenue that can reset Somalia on the right political trajectory.
From my observations, the roadmap laid important benchmarks on security, the constitution, good governance and reconciliation. On the part of the good governance benchmark, it was fundamental in re-establishing the confidence of Somalis and international partners through transparent and accountable systems and processes. Somalia’s recurrent crises stem from the abandonment of these benchmarks, and it is imperative that these be revisited with a view to implementing them in a timely, orderly manner.
The roadmap marked an important chapter in Somali history as it led to the timely completion of the constitution and its ratification by the 825 delegates, the formation of the 135 legitimate clan elders who selected the MPs and the holding of the first presidential election inside the country since state collapse. It left behind a legacy of consensus-building and institution-building that laid the foundations for federalism, constitutionalism and democracy.
Recommendations
In moving forward, Somalia needs a new, reinvigorated political roadmap modeled on the previous one. A new political roadmap should be staffed with specialist advisors to guide policymakers and other stakeholders through urgent, fast-moving, expedited timelines. It should guide the political class, civil society, and relevant stakeholders in delivering the following recommendations.
Restraining the Imperial Presidency
Somalia’s excessive presidential powers need to be checked. This means the presidency should only operate within the limits set by the Constitution. Executive powers vested in the president should not override those of the legislative organs, including the House of People and Senate. It should not undercut the powers of the judiciary nor undermine the independence of the federal bureaucracy.
Constitutional Review Process
Somalia is facing a constitutional crisis of monumental proportions. The April 30th, 2024, unilateral amendments of key clauses in the Somali Federal Constitution, concentrated and centralized power in the hands of the presidency, curtailed the powers of the Prime Minister, pushed for the holding of the impractical universal suffrage in place of indirect elections, and illegally extended the term limits for the President and FMS leaders. Rubber-stamped by a compromised Federal parliament lacking legal authority on matters pertaining to constitutional amendments, the changes created a political crisis that threatens Somali unity, national security, peace and stability.
To protect the constitution, crucial stakeholders, including political leaders, elders, civil society and Federal Member States, must take the initiative to reclaim the constitutional review process, declare the mutilated constitution null and void, demand the restoration of the provisional constitution in its entirety, and call for its progressive completion followed by national referendum.
Independent Judiciary
Judicial independence is essential to the rule of law and to the effective functioning of any given democracy. It is a well-known fact that Somalia’s judiciary only exists on paper, lacking the independence to exercise its judicial responsibilities. There must be urgent judicial reforms that will guarantee the highest independence of the courts and restore public trust in the judiciary.
Establishment of a Broad-based Government
An inclusive new government similar to that recently formed in Kenya should be established to restore public trust and end ongoing paralysis in the cabinet. A broad-based government should include opposition leaders and pursue a non-partisan agenda that can effectively address Somalia’s constitutional crisis and security dilemma. Gender rules and the inclusion of women in governing circles should be a cornerstone of the new government.
Bureaucratic Efficiency
A professional, well-trained, autonomous public service free from executive interference and manipulations should be the hallmark of the day-to-day operations in all departments of the government. Led by technocratic officials at the DG level, appointments to the public service should be based on merit and professional qualifications. There should be clear formal lines of authority and rigid division of labour. Officials should be experts in their fields, while career advancement should be based on technical qualifications, not personal connections.
National Reconciliation
In partnership with the EU and other international partners, a citizen assembly led by eminent Somali persons, elder statesmen, and stakeholders drawn from the federal and regional governments, civil society, faith groups, women, and youth must spearhead a national reconciliation agenda that will foster peace, unity and healing.
While Somalis have dragged their feet when it comes to national reconciliation, Somalia’s main international partner, the EU, is taking the initiative to bring Somalis to the reconciliation table. According to reliable sources, a senior EU diplomat says the bloc is planning a political reconciliation conference in Somalia following recent security scares, including the Raskamboni fiasco, as well as the controversial constitutional amendments that have created “an atmosphere of pervasive political mistrust across the political spectrum” said Joachim Waern, the Swedish Ambassador to Somalia.
“Now I think it is time to talk about some kind of peace conference. The EU is working on a reconciliation process in Somalia,” said the ambassador. Somalis must take advantage of the EU’s good offices to reconcile and unite for the sake of the country and its people.
Depoliticizing the Military
The role of the Somalia National Army and Special Units should be re-orientated and refocused towards fighting Al-Shabab. SNA should never be used to settle political scores or destabilize regional state governments. A process of proper integration and professionalization of the Somali army should begin in earnest to give it a national outlook while boosting morale and instilling patriotism within the ranks of the men and women in uniform.
Anti-Corruption
To slay the dragon of corruption, mechanisms should be put in place to root out nepotism, state patronage, prebendalism and the wanton looting of public coffers. A fully independent Anti-Corruption Commission should be constituted to lead the war against graft.
Reconnecting with the Youth
Somalia will never see peace until the youth are mobilized and empowered to participate in the decision-making processes from the grassroots to the national level. The youth should have their place at the table and must have a direct role in politics, civic engagement, economic development and tech innovation.
Conclusion
Somalia’s intractable political upheaval needs urgent intervention at the policy and security levels through a Somali-owned new political roadmap that can steer the country out of the current stalemate. The roadmap should be aimed at reviving the lost synergy, rebuilding public trust in government and averting the descent into chaos. It should address the constitutional limits to executive power, federal-state tensions, anti-corruption, good governance, professionalization of the Somali National Army and youth engagement. Further, a broad-based government supported by an independent, competent public service should be formed and must push for an agenda for peace, unity and national reconciliation.
(Deeq Yusuf is a former DG of the Ministry of Youth and Sports and the Ministry of Women and Human Rights Development, Federal Government of Somalia. Previously, he was the Chief of Staff of Puntland State Government of Somalia and a Senior Advisor to the Prime Minister. He can be reached via [email protected])
REFERENCES [1] Adeola Gabriel: The Philosophy and Theories of Federalism - file:///C:/Users/HP%20Stream/Downloads/The_Philosophy_and_Theories_of_Federalis%20(1).pdf
[2] Federalism: The Political Theory of Our Time - https://www.peterlang.com/document/1053685
[3] Wheare, K.C. Wheare, Kenneth Clinton - Federalism in America
[4] The Theory and Practice of Federalism
[5] Conlan: Federalism and Policy Instability: https://shs.cairn.info/journal-revue-francaise-de-science-politique-2014-2-page-221?lang=en&tab=texte-integral
[6] The Breakup of Yugoslavia: https://history.state.gov/milestones/1989-1992/breakup-yugoslavia
[7] ibid
[8] Failed States, Collapsed States: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/statefailureandstateweaknessinatimeofterror_chapter.pdf