Tuesday April 5, 2016
By Mr. Mohamud M Uluso
According to the “Population Estimation Survey 2014 for the 18 pre-war regions of Somalia,” carried out by the
United Nations Population Fund (UNPFA), the population of Somalia is estimated about
12,316,895 million divided into
urbans (5,216,392), rural (2,806,757), nomads (3,186,965), and Internally displaced
people-IDP- (1,106,751), living in 18 regions under different polities. The
purpose of the population estimation has been to develop political, economic,
social, and security policies that improve the lives of the entire population.
Therefore, bringing these different groups under the rule of a central
democratic government is paramount.
The delay in the emergence of centrally
ruling entity jeopardizes peace and stability in Somalia. Thus, lawful, credible
free, fair, and transparent “selection and election process”
which promotes a national political change in August 2016 is the stepping stone
for democratic central government. The repeat of the farce 2012 selection/election
process or another worse process will be a lethal injection into Somalia’s
statehood and nationhood. The international community dominates the political
and security process in Somalia and bears the primary responsibility for the
occurrence of such unfortunate fatal fate. The
UN Security Council remains actively seized of the matter of Somalia.
The no extension declaration for the
term of office for the president and members of parliament of the federal
government reiterated in the UN Security Council Resolution S/Res/2275 (2016) of 24th March 2016 will remain meaningless and deceptive if it is not responded
with a legitimate democratic plan of selection/election process that withstands
the test of the guiding principles
for competitive, free, and fair selection/election process. It is self-evident
that the time has run out for orderly, legitimate, competitive, free, and fair
election before August 2016.
Foreign patrons, political scandals,
corruption, and abuse of state power have deepened the conviction that Somalia
is for unscrupulous characters and thieves. The UN Security Council received
openly or confidentially many reports about “cash for votes” perpetrated by the federal government. The sharing
of the confidential reports with the Somali people is overdue.
By welcoming the electoral model for
the selection process of 275 members of the people’s House and the distribution
of 54 seats of the Upper House of the federal parliament to federal member
states without legal act and agreed upon detailed plan of implementation, the International
Community has denied preemptively the Somali people, particularly 1,650,277 people residing in Benadir region, the legitimacy
and opportunity to exercise their political rights as citizens. The ongoing political
process has ignited inflammatory, divisive, and dangerous discourse within the
Somali society.
Furthermore, the new agreement
between Puntland and the federal government signed today in Garowe will intensify
the controversy and complicate the Somali political system. The agreement establishes
essential rules of 2016 election. On the other hand, by accepting the 4.5 electoral
model without putting the agreement to referendum in Puntland, the president of
Puntland will face barrages of criticism from different corners. The change of
position indicates the discretionary political power of the Somali leaders at
all levels.
Recently, Anthony Banbury, former
Assistant Secretary General for Field Support published an opinion article
titled–I the Love
the U.N., but it is failing - in the New York Times and other
major international newspapers. He criticizes the role of UN in Somalia and
other countries. The predominant roles of IGAD, AU, UN, EU, and specific
influential international actors in Somalia are major contributors to the
Somali problems and failures.
Despite years of concerted efforts
including deployment of more than 25 thousand foreign forces in Somalia and
billions of dollars spent, few months ago, the US and EU governments ranked
Somalia with Libya and Yemen as high risk country to the international peace
and security. The US State Department issued warning against travelling to or
coming from Somalia. Members of the Somali-American and
Somali-European Diaspora encouraged to go back to Somalia to help its recovery
are now treated as high risk returnees at the international airports of their
adopted countries. This is a
serious dilemma which undermines all claims of progress and hopeful future made
in the last four years. The solution is to have a democratic credible state
that has international state attributes and can fulfill state functions.
The flaws and arbitrary decisions of
2012 transition process are continuing to shackle the peacebuilding and statebuilding
process in Somalia. In its 2012 report titled, Somalia: from troubled transition to Tarnished Transition?, the International Crisis Group (ICG) suggested the
formation of a caretaker government that would ensure continuity of government.
After 4 years, Somalia faces the same predicament of political transition and
deepening crisis that requires caretaker government.
SAFERWORLD, a non-profit international organization
established in UK, issued in January 2016 a report authored by Sunil Suri under
the title, “Barbed wire on
our head”: Lessons from Counter-terror, stabilization and statebuilding in
Somalia,” The report focuses on the role of
US, UK, and EU in Somalia and emphasizes the view that while the rationale
underpinning the engagement of these three countries in Somalia has been
heavily centered on reducing the threat of terrorism, there are five conflict drivers,
underlying the Somali instability and political chaos: poor governance, marginalization
and exclusion; impunity; corruption; competition for
resources; and politicization of clan
identity. Therefore, the author recommends to the trio a policy shift that takes
into consideration the evolving conflict drivers in Somalia which will ultimately
reduce the threat of terrorism.
Another international report that
has bearing on 2016 political election in Somalia is the “Freedom in
the World 2016” issued by the Freedom House.
Somalia/Somaliland is one of 12 worst countries in the world in terms of overall
score of freedom and democracy and has scored 2 as “not free country,” for the score scale
0=the worst and 100=the best. For freedom rating in terms of political rights
and civil liberties, Somalia scored 7 in the scale of 1=most free and 7= not
free, which means that Somalia is not a free country. Only Syria and Tibet are
worse than Somalia. This has far reaching implications for the political
election both in “Somalia” in 2016 and “Somaliland” in 2017. Use of foreign or state
powers and resources for gaining or keeping power is fueling public
disenchantment that sustains political conflicts and insecurity.
In the framework of political
dispensation, 6 million of the Somali people whose lives depend on the 2016
Humanitarian Response Plan
administered by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
(OCHA) are not in the picture. The plan presents statistical data that disturbs
the conscience of responsible people. In 2016, OCHA appeals for 885 million
dollars for life-saving and livelihood of those 6 million Somalis. The Somali
authorities are accused of forced evictions of IDPS and other urban poor from
public and private buildings in Mogadishu and other urban places without proper
arrangement. The
Humanitarian statistics measure national failure and lack of progress.
Professor Ken Menkhaus old friend of
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has delivered scathing presentation against the
performance of the Somali governments at Maxwell School of Syracuse University,
about “Statebuilding and Non-State Armed Actors in Somalia.” He labelled the federal government as a failure that controls
few neighborhoods in Mogadishu. He
suggested that Somali leaders are predators, who lack political will and
capacity (Wicked Problem), determined to maintain the status quo of state
failure and political chaos for personal interests. He provided pessimistic
picture about the overall situation in Somalia with the exception of few local
places. Nevertheless, he unenthusiastically favored the continuation of
statebuilding support.
On March 24, Matt Bryden, co-author
of the “Vision 2016” spoke at Centre for Strategic and International Studies in
Washington, D.C. In reference to the 2016 electoral process in Somalia, the
headline of his presentation was “The
Race Against Time.” With little time left, he highlighted the complex issues
that needs to be debated and agreed upon before 2016 election. He pointed out
that for the implementation of any selected electoral model will rise many
questions with no answers.
In the face of these assessments and
analysis, the international community should not hide behind bureaucratic curtain
and fictional deadlines. Like in 2012, the Somali federal institutions lost
legitimacy and relevance and few personalities are empowered for deciding 2016
political dispensation. Corrupt and manipulated 2016 selection/election process
hailed and defended by the international community will not lead to better
political inclusivity, reliable security, respect of human rights, economic
improvement, and democratic governance. The international Community must support
and stand behind a free and fair 2016 selection/election process from planning
to implementation and statebuilding agenda founded on united and integrated
Somalia.
Mr.
Mohamud M Uluso
[email protected]