Two Rival Presidents in Mogadishu, Come August?

by Abdul-Aziz Mohammed
Saturday, May 21, 2011

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In Somalia, hearts no longer ache for the plight of people. Pride for country is nonexistent. The very Soomaalinimo identity is dead, as stamps of this or that “land” on this small patch of earth, the size of State of Texas, is in progress. Tears, rivers and rivers of it, are shed only by victims. Even hope, the faith-based endurance giver, for a better tomorrow, is itself on comma.

You know this is the case when the contesting paramount issues, by would be politicians in a country, are not over how to rescue their people or restore their dignity.

The norm in Somalia politics, of the last 2 decades, is no one can pinpoint the worst, for it always gets worse.
Of the issues Somalia is facing, of nation-building on the moon magnitude, its beyond incredible that who will be the next president is the one of absolute essential!

Don’t get me wrong, for I am all for elections, provided they are legitimate both in nature and timing. Today, the Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and the Transitional Federal Parliament (TFP) are at loggerheads over electing a new president and speaker of the parliament, come this August!

On the face of it, this fight looks legitimate, especially when the mandate of the Somali government is slated to expire on this coming month of August. Yet, there is nothing legitimate about it, given the trickery and deception employed to go about such elections!

The current transitional setup established by the Djibouti peace process of 2009 tasked the TFG to prepare and organize a constitution and presidential and parliamentary elections by August, 2011. This meant clearly and unambiguously new elections for both government and parliament.

However, on February this year, the Transitional Federal Parliament (TFP) arbitrarily, in violation of Article 32(4) of the Transitional Federal Charter, voted itself in for a 3-year term extension. Then, the government followed suit in its one-year term extension. What is good for the goose is good for the gander, I guess!
Now, why is parliament insisting on government abiding by the charter (on term expiration) which it, the parliament, violated first?
Has Somali masses, like the Arab Spring, poured on streets and demanded unilateral parliament term-extension? This the parliament whose crowning achievements have been to hurl at each other chairs, insults and, on occasion, fist fights in session on parliament building floor!

A simple deductive reasoning dictates either the whole system (TFG and TFP) expires, as was envisaged by mandate, and the country to start from scratch, or they both continue for a reasonable, short period!
Unfortunately, there is something all too familiar afoot – very typical in Somalia’s last 2 decade politics; that a satisfaction of a personal interest over national is at work in all this.

The big chair in Villa Somalia is beaconing, almost audibly calling, someone: “come hither, it’s your time to sit on me, oh Mr. President!”

How else can one explain the clever engineering of current events in Mogadishu, whereby one of the institutions (parliament) would break the rules and sit in illegal judgment on the other (TFG)? Why, so that so and so will ascend on the throne!

It will be yet first of a big shocker on all Somalis and the world, come August, when in Mogadishu there will be two presidents with a government each. Let us see: Two presidents plus two governments and, for a good measure, perhaps two parliaments—as MPs will surely take sides as they have already began!

How could that happen, you may ask? Well, the TFG does not recognize the term-extension of the parliament. Conversely, the parliament does not accept TFG’s term increase. Then, if neither blinks nor compromises, the parliament could unilaterally proceed with the elections before August. That could produce a new president and his government, while the current TFG stays put immovably. Then you would certainly have two claimants to the same mantle. As a result, the parliament itself breaks into two, one half loyal to current TFG and the other to the new TFG! There you have it.

If that were to materialize, I hope it doesn’t, and then there is nothing left to say, or even do, about Somalia, except prey and prey and prey! Good God, almighty!

Abdul-Aziz Mohammed
[email protected]

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