by Abdullahi Jama
Saturday, June 04, 2011
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“An error does not become truth by reason of multiplied propagation, nor does truth become error because nobody sees it”. Mohandas Gandhi
Six-and-half years have passed since the current bloated and dysfunctional Transitional Federal Institutions of Somalia (TFIs) have been established in Embagathi, Kenya. Yet TFIs have failed to accomplish any of the tasks that have been assigned for, namely:
· To propagate reconciliation process throughout the country by reaching out the forces that opposes them.
· To implement federalism within 90 days from the day TFG has assumed power, and appoint an Independent commission to draft new constitution.
· To conduct national census, that serves as basis for national referendum to approve the new constitution.
· To restore peace and stability and rule of law in order to embark on democratic process based on one-person, one- vote.
According to Transitional Federal Charter (TFC), the TFG does not have a mandate to extend its term, under any circumstance. To date, the above tasks remain unfulfilled; nonetheless, the mandate of the TFIs (in its latest version) is coming to an end by August 2011.
As a result, the International Community(IC), the African Union (AU) and IGAD are busy devising a new strategy to replace the current TFG. The IGAD/AU has already endorsed the idea of extending the term of the current Transitional Federal Parliament (TFP). It was immediately followed by a hasty meeting of the MPs to extend their mandate for another 3 years. It does seem, however, that the two events were carefully coordinated, since Sharif Hassan, the speaker of the TFP, returned from a short visit to Addis Ababa a week before the announcement was made.
Conversely, the donor countries, and the UN have disavowed such move, calling it “a disservice to the people of Somalia and a setback to the establishment of legitimate and effective government”… “This unilateral and unrepresentative extension is not in the interests of the Somali people. It serves only to further undermine the credibility of the Parliament and risks strengthening al-Shabab”.
Currently, there are consultations going on in Kampala, Nairobi, London, New York, Addis Ababa, Djibouti, Rome and other places. Of course, the inabilities of the Somali institutions to manage their own affairs have significantly shifted the national sovereignty to foreign capitals.
Fixing a Failed State
There is no quick fix for a failed state. However, the appropriate approach is to address the root causes of the political instability in order to enable the citizens of that state to achieve self-governance. The IC's reinvigorated interest of active involvement in other countries internal affairs began with Somalia as a `litmus test ' for the `New World Order` right after the collapse of Soviet Union in 1990. President George W Bush Sr. saw a window of opportunity for the US to assert its uncontested power globally by initiating the "Operation Restore Hope" under the doctrine of "Humanitarian Intervention". The operation evolved into a UN mandate with 30.000 troops from more than 30 countries. The operation code named UNOSOM II was the largest peace keeping operation ever sent under the UN mandate without prior agreement from the authorities of the recipient country. That was a golden opportunity for Somalia to reconstitute its failed institutions and rebuild its infrastructure. Unfortunately, that initiative failed due to lack of clarity about the UN mission, the US manhunt of Gen Aideed and the inability of the Somalis to grasp the importance of this project. All parties erred badly and the peacekeeping operation ended in failure in 1995, as portrayed in the Hollywood Film of `Black Hawk Down`.
After almost a decade of neglect, the renewed interest in Somalia came as a result of the tragic event of September 11 which became “a game changer”. The US adopted a new policy which views failed states as a threat to its national security. The Bush doctrine argues that competing powerful states no longer pose an imminent threat to the US instead; failed states with perpetual cycle of violence posed the greatest danger to world peace. For that reason Somalia was securitized by President Bush Jr. in his 2002 State of the Union Address. That is why the IC is involved in Somalia's affairs. The IC exercises a degree of control over Somalia ranging from installing puppet leaders to allowing other states to fight proxy war in its soil under the pretext of “war on terror”. As a result, Somalia's sovereignty acquired in 1960 as a nation-state finally came to a complete halt.
The Current UN Mandate
The SRSG Dr Mahiga operates under the directives from the Secretary General of the UN and UNSC. Unlike the classical trusteeship of the UN which was abolished in 1994 after the last Trust Territory (Palau) became independent, this arrangement is somewhat less intrusive. The UN shares the sovereignty with local actors (in our case the TFG, TFP, PUNTLAD, GALMUDUG, SOMALILAND), Non Governmental Organisations (NGOs), Inter-Governmental Organisations (IGOs). Although it lacks clarity, such arrangement has been tested in Bosnia, Kosovo, and East Timor, Afghanistan. Somalia is not an exception. This is what David Laitin and James Fearon dubbed "Postmodern Imperialism".
Love it or loath it, Somalia is no longer a sovereign state. The TFP and the TFG leaders should have known that much better than anybody else since they have been parachuted into their respective positions without the will of the Somali people. They should understand that the donor countries are the ones calling the shot and not the AU or IGAD member countries who, like them, reap the benefits of the “international welfare”.
Indeed, the UN does not have appropriate mechanism to deal with the multitude challenges that may arise from failed institutions of Somalia; however, there is no substitute to their leadership, at least for now. We cannot afford to squander another chance.
The Upcoming Mogadishu Conference.
As recently suggested by the UNSC the Conference should be presided over by the SRSG Dr Mahiga, the alternative is worse. It is the UN who should decide the participants and the procedures of the conference. We should not underestimate the conflict of interest which it taking place in IGAD and AU. Whatever this conference may produce, the UN needs to prepare groundwork for Somali intellectuals to come up with a viable plan to save Somalia. Indeed, a home ground initiative from people with no vested interest would be appropriate to find a cure for Somalia's intractable malgovernance.
Selection of the MPs
Somalia suffers from a deficit of honest and patriotic leaders. The current TFP need to be replaced with a much smaller and better organised legislature. A process of selection need to be devised. We suggest a National Screening Council of elders to select MPs. Constituents or Communities (beel) need to be checked and challenged when they get wrong. The dinosaurs of the civil war and the rotten elements of the TFP/TFG should be eliminated from the political scene even in a scenario where present TFP members elect new leadership.
Recommendations
Although the upcoming conference in Mogadishu is expected to produce a complete agreement on way forward, we suggest the following steps to be taken into consideration;
1. With only two months left in the mandate of TFIs, there is no time to select new MPs. Hence, we are left with two difficult choices. a) Extend TFP term for 2/3 years and allow another corrupted leader to emerge. b) Extend the term of both TFP and TFG for a year and allow corruption and ineptitude to flourish. Both options are unacceptable. The changing of the guard in the TFIs is necessary no matter how much they rant and rave. The UN should nominate corruption watchdog to oversee the election process and reserve the right to invalidate the outcome should parties commit gross misconduct.
2. Before the elections of TFI leaders take place, the current TFP should pass the following piece of legislations;
a) Reduce (in principle) the number of TFP members by 70% leaving only 165 MPs.
b) Pass a plan of action for the elected leaders to fulfil in the next two years
c) Appoint a commission of technocrats to usher the exit strategy for AMISOM troops and to find alternative ways for their replacement
d) Donor countries should allow more flexibility over the funds allocated for peace keeping in order allowing Somali leaders to rebuild the state institutions. In such a case, donors can make a loan to Somali institutions instead of a rigid grant.
e) Somalia's new authorities and the donor countries should show "zero tolerance" for corruption.
f) The National Reconciliation Commission should come under the UN and its members reshuffled to include personalities of high regard in Somalia.
Finally, in order to restore the dignity of our nation, Somali intellectuals and politicians require great deal of patriotic courage to grasp the nettle that has been meticulously avoided for the last twenty years.
Abdullahi Jama,
London, UK
[email protected]