The Twisted Logic: Restoration of failed state of Somalia from Hargeisa.

Abdullahi Hussein Daud
Friday, July 30, 2010

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Ever since the news of Somaliland’s latest successful multiparty presidential election came into prominence, some have proposed a project of restoring the failed state of Somalia from Hargeisa, Somaliland. Since the proponents of this project are well known opponents of Somaliland, their argument is disingenuous at best and hypocritical at worse aimed at frustrating Somaliland’s pursuit of international recognition. Nevertheless, let us give them the benefit of the doubt and analyze the merits of their argument which has the following serious logical and historical errors that basically make it unpersuasive and impractical.

Firstly the argument has misdiagnoses the reason why Somaliland wants to stay away from Somalia. In addition to the atrocities and human rights abuses subjected to people of Somaliland during the union with Somalia, people of Somaliland want to seek their own independent state for their own survival given the political upheavals in Somalia. No amount of international financial incentives and enticement will persuade Somaliland to gamble with its hard won peace, stability and democratization process.

Secondly, the argument has also misdiagnoses the reason behind the political instability in Somalia, especially in South/Central Somalia. Up until now, people of South/Central Somalia are unwilling to accept responsibility for what is taken place in their own geographical areas. And contrary to what some wants us to believe, the political instability in South/Central Somalia is not because of the presence of militant groups such as Hizbu Islam and Al Shabab. The militant groups have merely replaced the ousted warlords such as Muse Yalahow, Omar Finish, Indha Adde and Qanyare. Therefore, the political situation in South/Central Somalia has always been like this since the downfall of the government of Dictator Siad Barre. Therefore, unless people of South/Central Somalia take the ownership of their own future and destiny, no one can change the realities on the ground. In Quran, Allah mentioned “Verily never will Allah change the condition of a people until they change it themselves” From 13: 11
The only time that South/Central Somalia has witnessed any resemblance of peace and stability was the reign of the Union of Islamic Courts which was basically a local initiative. The UIC was established to fight criminal gangs and to administer justice. However, this positive initiative evaporated in thin air after the leaders of the UIC changed their agenda from that of locally administering justice to that of restoring the failed state of Somalia. I have no doubt that Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, the then leader of the UIC, would have been successful politically and militarily if he had presented himself as a local leader of Mogadishu/Benadir geographical area. However, as soon as decided to pursue the elusive agenda of restoring the failed state of Somalia, he quickly lost his local support and thereby political legitimacy.

The latest victim in the pursuit of the agenda of restoration of the failed state of Somalia is the autonomous region of Puntland which was relatively strong and peaceful up until it heavily got involved in the military conflict in South/Central Somalia during the Presidency of Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed. For instance, Puntland has invested its meager resources both economically and militarily to support the failed presidency of Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed. The region is so weak now that it is threatened militarily by militant groups.

This is exactly what will happen to Somaliland if it tries to pursue the elusive agenda of restoring failed state of Somalia. Therefore, undertaking this initiative is a huge gamble for Somaliland which will ultimately undermine its constitution and seriously endanger its peace and stability.

All those who tried to restore Somalia as state for the last twenty years have repeatedly failed miserably. The United Nations initiatives known as UNISOM and American intervention code named “To Restore Hope” both ended with failure. Moreover, another fifteen international conferences of “reconciliation” did not bring peace and stability to South/Central Somalia. Among prominent of these conferences were the ones sponsored by neighboring countries of Ethiopia (Sodere 1996), Djibouti (Arta 2000) and Kenya (Embeghati 2002). Why should we have to repeat this failed project of restoring the failed state of Somalia again and again? Albert Einstein defined insanity as “doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. “

It is, therefore, imperative for people of South/Central Somalia, including their Diaspora intellectuals, to wake up and to claim their destiny from outsiders and imposers. They have to abandon their desire of expect from others to come and clean their home. In other words, they have to have faith in themselves. Unless people of South/Central Somalia reclaim their territory from outsiders, they have no credibility whatsoever to search for a Somalia state. I have no doubt that if they put their hearts and heads together; people of South/Central Somalia are capable of restoring peace and stability in their territory. This is exactly what people of Somaliland and, to some extend Puntland, has done to restore peace and stability in their respective territory. However, in order to achieve this people of South/Central Somalia have to depend on their own. For instance, they have to abandon their conviction that “international community” including IGADD, African Union, Arab League and United Nations are their saviors.

As Americans say “you can only lead a horse to water, but you cannot make him drink.” Therefore, any outsiders, including Somaliland, can only help as long as the people of South/Central Somalia want help themselves.

The author is a Doctorate in Public Administration at Hamline University, Saint Paul, Minnesota. He can be reached at [email protected]

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