Tuesday April 15, 2025
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Leaders of the Red SEE Alliance: Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki.
Mogadishu (HOL) — Somalia's expanding security alliances are driving instability in the Horn of Africa, according to a new study that warns these dynamics are exacerbating proxy conflicts and undermining peace efforts.
Published Tuesday by the Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, the report — co-authored by Dr. Mercy Fekadu Mulugeta and Leulseged Girma — examines how unconventional security arrangements involving ports, state recognition, and foreign military deployments are redrawing political lines and raising the risk of internationalized conflict. It identifies Somalia as a central player whose strategic realignments could reshape the region's balance of power.
The analysis points to the January 2024 Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland as a major trigger. The deal, which offers Ethiopia access to 19 kilometres of coastline in exchange for political recognition of Somaliland, has drawn strong opposition from the Somali federal government, which considers Somaliland part of its sovereign territory.
n retaliation, Somalia deepened military and diplomatic ties with Egypt and Eritrea—countries locked in long-standing disputes with Ethiopia. Egypt, in particular, has shipped military assistance to Somalia in early 2025, raising concerns that the support is aimed less at fighting terrorism than countering Ethiopia's control of the Nile.
"Tackling Al-Shabab is not the true motivation for the cooperation between Somalia and Egypt; Egypt is strategically positioning itself to coerce Ethiopia out of its hydro-development," the report states.
"Somalia's shifting alliances mirror wider regional rivalries," said Dr. Mercy Fekadu Mulugeta, an associate professor at Addis Ababa University and director of the ARUA Center of Excellence on Post-Conflict Societies. "What may appear as national defence policies are, in fact, transactional strategies tied to broader geopolitical fault lines."
Though Somalia and Ethiopia entered peace talks brokered by Turkey in December 2024, known as the Ankara Agreement, the report notes the deal lacked transparency. Crucial details remain unresolved, including whether Ethiopian forces will continue participating in the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM).
The authors stress that Somalia's actions are not occurring in a vacuum. Internal criticism has surfaced within the country, with some officials accusing Egypt of using Somalia as a pawn in its broader dispute with Ethiopia. "Egypt wants to turn us into a pawn in their broader struggle," one Somali federal minister was quoted as saying in the report.
The report places these developments within a broader context of historical grievances. Egypt has long sought to uphold colonial-era water treaties that exclude Ethiopia from key decisions over Nile access. Ethiopia, in turn, has rejected those agreements as outdated and built the GERD to secure its energy future. Somalia's involvement — willingly or otherwise — reflects how lower riparian states are increasingly being drawn into this hydro-political contest.
The authors also warn that peace support operations are becoming politicized, with regional actors using missions like AUSSOM to assert influence. Somalia had previously opposed Ethiopian troop participation in AUSSOM, citing a conflict of interest over Ethiopia's partnership with Somaliland.
"Peace support operations are being weaponized by states to serve geopolitical ends," said Leulseged Girma, a Horn of Africa political analyst and co-author of the study. "That compromises not just Somalia's stability but the credibility of the international peacekeeping system."
If Ethiopia proceeds to formally recognize Somaliland, the consequences could be far-reaching. The report cautions that such a move would not only inflame tensions with Mogadishu, but also embolden separatist movements elsewhere and reshape naval partnerships along the Red Sea.
Somaliland, which declared independence from Somalia in 1991, remains unrecognized by any UN member state. The study urges regional and international institutions to revisit the African Union's 2005 Fact-Finding Mission and develop clear mechanisms for addressing unrecognized territories' political and legal status.
Somalia's diplomatic outreach now spans beyond traditional partners. The report notes that Mogadishu has sought cooperation with Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Tanzania — a diversification that reflects its growing effort to secure support across multiple global blocs.
At the same time, the Horn of Africa has become a magnet for international powers. Countries like the UAE, China, Russia, and Turkey have expanded their presence through port development, infrastructure projects, and security deployments — adding layers of complexity to local and regional disputes.
To address rising tensions, the study calls on BRICS, the African Union, and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) to intervene diplomatically. It recommends urgent mediation between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Nile and demands stricter oversight of peace support operations.
"Somalia's strategic importance is undeniable," the report concludes. "But unless regional and international actors pursue coordinated diplomacy, the country risks becoming a stage for proxy battles that could engulf the wider Horn."