By Ben Wolfgang
Tuesday February 20, 2024
Armed al-Shabab fighters ride on pickup trucks as they prepare to travel into the city, just outside the capital Mogadishu, in Somalia on Dec. 8, 2008. The al-Qaida-linked militant group al-Shabab claimed an attack that killed three Emirati troops and a Bahraini military officer on a training mission at a military base in the Somali capital, authorities said Sunday, Feb. 11, 2024.(AP Photo/Farah Abdi Warsameh, File)
To fully understand the slate of bad options facing the U.S. in Somalia, consider this: National security analysts say that the Somali government troops are “several degrees of magnitude worse” than the hapless Afghan army that surrendered to the Taliban in a matter of weeks in 2021 after the Biden administration announced the U.S. combat troop withdrawal.
That grim reality has left President Biden with little choice but to escalate a war against Somalia‘s al-Shabab terror network that his predecessor, Donald Trump, tried to end during the final days of his term. The Pentagon carried out more airstrikes against al-Shabab targets last year than any year so far in Mr. Biden’s presidency, and could be on track to break that mark again this year.
But that doesn’t mean there’s a clear route to victory over al-Shabab, a powerful al Qaeda affiliate that remains dead set on overthrowing the fragile federal government in Mogadishu and establishing a jihadist-led new Islamic emirate along the Horn of Africa. While American airstrikes so far have prevented that nightmare scenario, the Pentagon concedes there is “no specific target date for the end of U.S. military support to Somalia,” and little in the way of clear metrics for when victory has been achieved.
Put simply, Mr. Biden’s strategy thus far is simply to kick the can down the road, hoping to avoid a catastrophe that could further destabilize an already chaotic corner of the world.
“It’s not a winning strategy. And it’s barely a hold-the-line strategy,” said Bill Roggio, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and editor of the think tank’s “Long War Journal,” which tracks America’s long-running, under-the-radar war in Somalia and other conflicts.
There are certainly many cultural and geopolitical differences between Somalia and Afghanistan. But Mr. Roggio argued that some of the same fundamental questions at play in Kabul can be asked about Mogadishu.
“The Biden administration’s justification for leaving Afghanistan was that it’s a long war and we weren’t affecting change. But one of Biden’s first acts as president was putting troops back in Somalia after Trump withdrew them. What is their strategy?” Mr. Roggio said. “In Somalia, I believe it is to prevent collapse. I think Biden realized when he put those troops back in, it looked like the country might collapse.”
Back into the fight
Mr. Trump, who vowed to get the U.S. out of “endless wars” in the Middle East and beyond, withdrew U.S. troops from Somalia during his final weeks in office. Mr. Biden sent those troops back into Somalia in 2022, though the footprint remains quite small. There are fewer than 1,000 American forces there today.
The U.S. was able to continue hitting al-Shabab even after Mr. Trump’s withdrawal, relying on military and logistical capabilities based in neighboring African countries.
But there was still an immediate impact on the number of American strikes. In 2019, the U.S. carried out 63 airstrikes on al-Shabab. In 2020, that number was 52, according to U.S. Africa Command.
In 2021, it dropped dramatically to just 10. It has crept back up since, with 16 airstrikes in 2022 and 18 in 2023, according to AFRICOM.
There have been three U.S. airstrikes so far this year. The strikes have targeted al-Shabab leaders and fighters.
On paper, the overall goal of the air campaign is simple.
“The current objective of the U.S. military mission in Somalia is to support our Somali partners in their efforts to combat terrorist organizations such as al-Shabab and to promote stability and security in the region,” an AFRICOM spokesperson said in a statement to The Washington Times. “While we do not have a specific target date for the end of U.S. military support to Somalia, our ultimate goal is to strengthen the capacity of the Somali government and security forces to take the lead in ensuring the safety and security of their country and people.”
Asked about specific metrics for achieving victory over al-Shabab, AFRICOM said, “We continuously assess and adjust our strategies and tactics to achieve our objectives in Somalia.”
“Our efforts are guided by a comprehensive approach that includes training and advising Somali security forces, supporting governance and development initiatives, and conducting targeted operations against terrorist threats,” the spokesperson said.
The U.S. on-again, off-again war in Somalia has now lasted more than 30 years. Nineteen Americans were killed and more than 70 others wounded in October 1993 in a clash with militant forces that became part of American pop culture with the book and film “Black Hawk Down.” More recently, in 2018 one U.S. Special Operations soldier was killed and four others wounded during a firefight with al-Shabab militants.
Al-Shabab‘s deadly capabilities have been on display more recently as well. The group is believed to have been responsible for a Feb. 6 bombing at a market in Mogadishu that reportedly killed at least 10 people. Al-Shabab claimed responsibility for a Feb. 11 attack that killed four Emirati troops and a Bahraini military office during a training mission at a military base in Mogadishu, according to media reports.
Last month, al-Shabab fighters took nine passengers hostage after their United Nations helicopter was forced to make an emergency landing in an area of Somalia controlled by the group. Those incidents come on the heels of years of deadly bombings and attacks by al-Shabab fighters, who control significant swaths of the country outside Mogadishu.
Delaying the inevitable?
America isn’t the only nation seemingly well aware of the fact that a full withdrawal from Somalia would lead to near-immediate disaster. The African Union’s long-planned withdrawal of its forces from Somalia has been delayed on multiple occasions in recent years, including last November, when the U.N. Security Council suspended the pullout for three months.
Before the drawdown began, the African Union had a contingent of nearly 20,000 troops in Somalia. Their presence, along with the steady U.S. airstrikes, has helped the Somali government stave off a full al-Shabab takeover. But the pullout is expected to continue this summer with the removal of at least 4,000 more troops. About 5,000 African Union troops have already left the country, along with the transfer of 13 military bases from the AU to the Somali government. For the AU, the next few months will be especially pivotal and potentially dangerous.
“We are now moving into the most critical stage of the mission because by June we are going to draw down additional troops and you have to take into consideration force protection. It’s not easy, but we must surmount the challenges by remaining on the maximum alert during the transition period,” Amb. Mohamed El-Amine Souef, head of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia, said during a meeting in Mogadishu earlier this month.
As proved the case in Afghanistan despite two decades of U.S. aid and training, Somali government troops simply cannot survive without that support, said Mr. Roggio, the FDD analyst.
“The Somali forces, I would argue, are several degrees of magnitude worse than the Afghan forces,” he said. “They’re being propped up not just by the U.S., but by the African Union.”
Eradicating al-Shabab would likely require a substantial, prolonged U.S. ground offensive in Somalia. There’s simply no political or public will for such an engagement right now in America.
“This is why we won’t win this war,” Mr. Roggio said. “All we can do is basically try to keep a lid on it.”
• Ben Wolfgang can be reached at [email protected].