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Ethiopia’s bid for Red Sea access faces fragile alliances in the Horn


Thursday December 19, 2024


An aerial view of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, a vital maritime chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden

Mogadishu (HOL) — The Ankara Declaration, signed on December 11, has thrown Ethiopia a lifeline in its quest for Red Sea access. For Ethiopia, landlocked since 1993, this Turkish-brokered deal with Somalia is an opportunity to rewrite its economic destiny. Yet, the agreement is already being tested by unresolved regional rivalries and fragile alliances.

At its heart, the Ankara Declaration promises Ethiopia sustainable access to the sea by June 2025, a move that could loosen Djibouti's stranglehold on Ethiopian trade. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has hailed it as a "natural right" and an economic necessity, with the potential to redirect the $1 billion Ethiopia spends annually on port fees.

Turkey, eager to expand its footprint in the Horn of Africa, brokered the agreement with deft diplomacy. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's intervention signals Ankara's ambitions to cement its status as a powerbroker in a region scarred by years of conflict and mistrust.

The ink on the declaration was barely dry before questions about Ethiopia's naval base deal with Somaliland publicly arose. Signed in January 2024, the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) gave Ethiopia access to Somaliland's Red Sea coast but drew immediate condemnation from Somalia's federal government, which views Somaliland as an integral part of its territory.

While Somali officials claim the Ankara Declaration nullifies Ethiopia's Somaliland pact, Ethiopian state media have not explicitly mentioned the retraction of the MoU. The declaration reaffirms Ethiopia and Somalia's commitment to each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity, which implicitly addresses concerns related to the MOU.

The absence of a direct reference to the MOU in state media reports leaves room for interpretation. Some experts believe that Ethiopia's agreement to respect Somalia's territorial integrity could render the MOU with Somaliland void, while others argue that the lack of explicit mention indicates that the MOU may still hold relevance. 

Hargeisa remains defiant. Somaliland insists Ethiopia has made no such commitment, exposing deep rifts that could derail regional cooperation.

The deal's success hinges on securing trade routes through southern Somalia, a region where Al Shabaab operates with near impunity. The insurgent group, which rejected the Ankara Declaration, continues to target key roads and ports, threatening Ethiopia's overland access to the Red Sea.

Security concerns are not new. A 2018 Ethiopia-Somalia port agreement signed by the Farmajo administration failed for similar reasons. Despite ongoing offensives, Mogadishu has struggled to reclaim critical infrastructure from Al Shabaab, underscoring the enormity of the challenge ahead.

The deal also raises questions about Somalia's burgeoning alliance with Egypt, which has long viewed Ethiopia as a rival over Nile River disputes. In 2024, Somalia signed defence pacts with Egypt, with 5,000 joining AUSSOM and the remainder under a bilateral agreement. The deal also included provisions for major arms shipments. These moves were perceived as counterweights to Ethiopia's influence.

Complicating matters further), the Somali Federal Government has decided to include Ethiopian troops in the forthcoming African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), reversing its earlier stance. Somalia had vowed to exclude Ethiopian forces from AUSSOM, citing sovereignty concerns linked to Ethiopia's January 2024 MoU with Somaliland. Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud praised Ethiopian forces for their contributions to Somalia's stability during a recent ceremony, signalling a thaw in relations. 

Ethiopia currently maintains approximately 3,000 troops in Somalia under ATMIS and an additional 5,000 to 7,000 soldiers through a bilateral agreement. 

The decision to retain Ethiopian forces in AUSSOM will likely garner support from the Southwest and Jubaland states, which had previously expressed concerns over the potential security vacuum that could result from a complete Ethiopian withdrawal.

The African Union Peace and Security Council has approved AUSSOM to replace the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) starting January 2025. 

Turkey's role, however, has drawn international praise. The European Union, African Union, and the United States lauded Ankara's mediation, signalling broad support for its stabilizing influence in the Horn of Africa.

For Somalia's government, the Ankara Declaration presents significant political risks. Critics accuse President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of capitulating to Ethiopian demands, thereby undermining Somalia's sovereignty. Former Somali Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire has condemned the recent Ankara Agreement between Somalia and Ethiopia, describing it as a "dormant volcano" threatening Somalia's stability. Abdirahman Abdishakur Warsame, a prominent opposition leader, has called for transparency regarding the agreement, expressing concerns over its lack of clarity and potential implications for Somalia's territorial integrity. 

Al Shabaab has already weaponized public discontent, framing the agreement as a betrayal. The militant group has intensified its propaganda efforts, portraying the deal as evidence of the government's willingness to compromise national sovereignty for foreign interests. 

The Ankara Declaration provides a roadmap for collaboration, but its success hinges on the outcome of the technical talks scheduled for February 2025, which will determine whether the agreement translates into tangible progress or exacerbates existing tensions. 



 





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