By Abdishakur Ali Mire
Wednesday June 3, 2026
Somalia is once again facing political uncertainty caused by absence of national agreements on electoral framework.
Political violence and political disagreements have became inescapable every four years, particularly, whenever the mandate of federal institutions ends without a credible political agreement on the electoral framework.
This has been linked to the absence of a nationally agreed electoral model that could end the recurrent political crisis in the country and serve as a permanent solution for national elections.
Another major factor driving this endless political cycle is the lack of political commitment from Somali political elites who have never envisioned a robust political foundations for an electoral model that capable of addressing these issues in the long run.
Instead, Somali elites have pursued shorter-term, temporary electoral arrangements for political gain, promoting every four years a process that serves their ambitions.
Additionally, the repeated failures of successive governments to forge an inclusive process acceptable to all parties and to safeguard the country from ongoing political crisis among stakeholders are major causes of Somali's repetitive electoral chaos.
The power struggle and absence of solid power sharing agreements between the federal government and the federal member states have created a political environment in which two levels of governments cannot to collaborate effectively to advance national interest.
As a result, their competition has deepened political divisions in Somali's political landscape, particularly electoral and constitutional issues.
As political disagreements over constitution, electoral process and other national contentious issues deepen among federal leadership, regional leaders and opposition groups in recent months, we are witnessing renewed hostile activities in Mogadishu.
Both the federal government and opposition leaders have prepared their forces for the possibility of armed conflict with opposition groups vowed to proceed their announced national political rally on 4 June against president HSM’S electoral policies.
Despite, the diplomatic statement from the UN and Western partners urging Somali leaders to avoid violence and to embrace dialogue, the political stances of both the government and opposition appear unchanged.
The opposition leadership has already begun to relocating to different parts of Mogadishu, with reports of hostile activities in those areas.
Given the, geopolitical environment that impacts Somali's sovereignty and unity, national security threats posed by Al-Shabaab terrorist group, prolonged droughts across the country, and years old political disagreements between federal government and regional authorities and opposition group Somalia is likely to remain weaker and more vulnerable to national challenges.
To prevent further political crisis and violence that could jeopardize the state-building process and the country's unity, Somali political stakeholders and international partners including friendly countries should take decisive steps to break the political deadlock
and push for national dialogue.
President HSM has a constitutional responsibility to preserve the nation from political chaos and violence. For the sake of national interests, he should confront the national challenges bravely and make tangible compromises to end the impasse.
Likewise, the federal member states and opposition groups have a national role to play in safeguarding the country from sliding into armed conflicts.
They should promote a national agenda that facilitates national dialogue and political consensus among stakeholders and must not seek solutions through military means.
The International community has supported Somalia for the past three decades and invested heavily in the state-building process. Therefore, they should use their diplomatic influence to foster political dialogue and national consensus on contentious issues to prevent instability and political violence.
Although, the current focus of political efforts is on electoral disputes to reach consensus among stakeholders, it remains crucial to recognize that the main cause of repetitive electoral crisis is the absence of a nationally agreed electoral system that prevents the country from repeating the same political scenarios every four years.
Therefore, the Somali political elites and actors in both opposition and in the government should prioritize finding a permanent political solution to address this issue, rather than pursuing short term measure.
Abdishakur Ali Mire
Member of the Somali Parliament
The views expressed in this article are the authors’ own and do not necessarily reflect Hiiraan Online’s editorial stance.
