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Somalia balances Egypt pact with Red Sea neutrality


Monday July 7, 2025


Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is warmly received upon arrival in Egypt, on July 6, 2025, for an official visit to discuss bilateral cooperation with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. The visit comes amid rising regional tensions over Ethiopia’s planned inauguration of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. (Photo: Villa Somalia/Handout)

Mogadishu (HOL) — Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud met Sunday with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, further deepening security and trade ties while navigating rival pressure from Cairo and Addis Ababa over the Nile’s contested waters.

The leaders agreed to fast-track a January defence pact that allows Egyptian trainers to assist Somali forces guarding Red Sea shipping lanes, officials from both capitals said. They also reviewed plans to boost bilateral trade and open a direct shipping corridor linking Mogadishu and Suez.  Somali officials said deliveries of Egyptian armoured vehicles and artillery last August and September will now be folded into a broader program to re-equip the Somali National Army. 

Cairo wants allies as it presses Ethiopia for a treaty guaranteeing downstream Nile flows once the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, now more than 90 percent complete, is fully operational. Meanwhile, Ethiopia has attempted to court Mogadishu with development loans and last month invited Hassan Sheikh to a GERD milestone ceremony, which Hassan Sheikh declined.

Egypt’s interest spiked after Addis Ababa signed a memorandum of understanding on Jan. 1, 2024, that gives it naval and commercial access to Berbera in Somaliland for up to 50 years — a deal Mogadishu blasted as an “illegal violation of sovereignty.” 

Somalia responded by rallying a loose bloc with Egypt, Eritrea and Djibouti to counter what it saw as Ethiopia’s encroachment following the MoU. However, that deal was effectively scrapped after Turkey mediated the Ankara Declaration in December 2024

Somalia insists it remains neutral. Villa Somalia took that line in 2022 when the president’s spokesman denied reports that Mogadishu had embraced Egypt’s legal position at the U.N. Security Council. Yet sources have told HOL that Egyptian envoys have been lobbying hard for Somali support ahead of the next Nile negotiations, scheduled for September in Washington.

“Egypt moved first to counter any tightening of the Addis Ababa–Mogadishu relationship,” said Talaat Taha, a political analyst at Egypt’s Al-Fajr newspaper.

Abdisalam Haji Ahmed of Mogadishu’s Institute for Political Studies warned that overt alignment with either camp could jeopardize aid and security cooperation. “Somalia cannot afford the appearance of choosing sides in a high-stakes Nile dispute,” he said.

Somalia views Egypt as a potential partner in upgrading ports and training its coast guard, while Ethiopia supplies subsidized scholarships and military courses.  Under an October 2024 implementation deal, Cairo pledged to send up to 1,000 troops to the African Union’s post-ATMIS peacekeeping mission.

A senior Somali diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to brief reporters, said Villa Somalia hopes to “harvest benefits from both capitals without being branded an Egyptian proxy or an Ethiopian appendage.”

Cairo’s interest extends beyond the Nile. In April, Egypt and Djibouti declared that only coastal states should police the 3,300-kilometre coastline of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, waters that carry roughly 10 percent of global maritime trade.

Hassan Sheikh is expected to brief Somalia’s Parliament on Tuesday. Lawmakers plan to press him on how he will keep the country neutral while extracting infrastructure funding and security assistance from both Cairo and Addis Ababa. Further Egyptian arms deliveries, which were already protested by Ethiopia as “destabilizing,” are scheduled for the third quarter.

Diplomats say the true test will come when the World Bank-brokered Nile talks resume. However, Hassan Sheikh is expected to brief Somalia’s Parliament in Mogadishu on Tuesday about his Red Sea and Nile diplomacy. Lawmakers plan to question him on how he will maintain neutrality as the next round of GERD negotiations approaches.



 





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