Saturday October 19, 2024
The latest developments are set to further exacerbate tensions with Ethiopia, whose relations with the government in Mogadishu are at loggerheads over the controversial memorandum of understanding signed on January 1st between the authorities in Addis Ababa and those of the self-proclaimed Republic of Somaliland.
The military cooperation agreement signed in August by the governments of Somalia and Egypt for the dispatch of 10 Egyptian troops to Mogadishu is taking shape, half of which will be allocated to bilateral defense initiatives and half to the new African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), which will replace the AU Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) on January 2025, 31. According to the Somali Guardian newspaper, Egyptian military advisors have already been deployed to support Somali army units at critical supply lines used by Ethiopian troops in Somalia – where they are engaged in the ATMIS mission – to prevent any further deployment of troops before their withdrawal, scheduled for December 31. The dispatch of the first advisors, therefore, anticipates the imminent arrival in Mogadishu of the first real contingent that Egypt will have to deploy in Mogadishu by the December XNUMX deadline. The latest developments are set to further exacerbate tensions with Ethiopia, whose relations with the government in Mogadishu are at loggerheads over the controversial memorandum of understanding signed on January XNUMXst between the authorities in Addis Ababa and those of the self-proclaimed Republic of Somaliland.
The deployment of Egyptian troops to Somalia was recently approved by the Somali government and officially sanctioned during the recent visit of the Somali president to Asmara. Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who participated in a trilateral summit with his counterparts from Egypt and Eritrea, respectively Abdel Fattah al-Sisi e Isaiah Afwerki. On that occasion, the three leaders also established the creation of a strategic alliance that appears to be aimed at curbing Ethiopian expansionism in the Red Sea. In the joint statement released at the end of the Asmara meeting, the three parties stressed "the need to absolutely respect the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of the countries in the region and to counter interference in their internal affairs under any pretext or justification", as well as "adhering to the fundamental principles and pillars of international law as an indispensable basis for regional stability and cooperation". At the centre of attention was security in the Red Sea and the Strait of Bab el Mandeb, recognised as a "vital maritime corridor": in the document, the leaders "welcomed the efforts made by Eritrea and Egypt to support stability in Somalia and strengthen the capacities of the Somali federal government", and expressed a positive opinion on Egypt's offer "to contribute troops as part of peacekeeping efforts in Somalia".
Talks between Egypt and Eritrea continued following a surprise visit to Asmara by the head of Egyptian intelligence Kamal Abbas, very close to President Abdel Fattah al Sisi and accompanied by the Minister of Foreign Affairs Badr Abdelatty. Senior Egyptian officials, a statement said, “also listened to President Afwerki’s views on developments in the Red Sea regarding the importance of finding the right circumstances to restore normal maritime navigation and international trade through the Strait of Bab el Mandeb,” which connects the Red Sea to the Arabian Sea. Together, the territories of Egypt and Eritrea cover about 5 kilometers of the Red Sea coastline, including the Egyptian shores of the Gulfs of Suez and Aqaba, as well as 355 islands under Eritrean sovereignty. Egypt controls the northern parts of the Red Sea, including the Suez Canal that connects it to the Mediterranean, while Eritrea is located near the strategic Strait of Bab el Mandeb.
At the heart of the tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia is the signing of the controversial memorandum of understanding signed on January 1st between the Ethiopian government and the authorities of the self-proclaimed Republic of Somaliland, according to which Addis Ababa would obtain access to the Red Sea through the port of Berbera, in exchange for recognition of the independence of the breakaway state. The memorandum, predictably, has not been recognized by Somalia, which considers it a threat to its territorial sovereignty. Tensions between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa have grown in recent weeks and reached a peak at the end of September, when President Mohamud accused the Ethiopian army of seizing strategic airports in the Somali region of Ghedo - where Ethiopian troops are deployed as part of the Atmis mission - and of having begun to arm clan militias throughout the country, due to tensions arising from the memorandum.
In an interview with the Arabic edition of “Al Jazeera”, Mohamud denounced that Ethiopia has taken full control of the Gedo region, where it continues to arm clan militias to undermine the authority of the Somali government. Asked about the memorandum of understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland, Mohamud reiterated that Addis Ababa is not only aiming to gain access to the Red Sea but is also trying to annex parts of Somali territory. “Ethiopia does not just want a port; it aims to establish military power in the Red Sea, which is completely unacceptable,” said the Somali president, for whom Ethiopia is mainly aiming to establish a naval base to ensure maritime dominance of the area. In recent weeks, Ethiopia has deployed armored vehicles and hundreds of troops to the border with Somalia, later seizing key airfields in Somalia’s Gedo region, including Luq, Dolow and Bardere, in an effort to prevent the possible airlift of Egyptian troops into the area. The move came in response to the arrival in Mogadishu of the first Egyptian troops to be deployed in the Hirshabelle, Southwest and Galmudug regional states under a military cooperation agreement signed in August by the governments of Somalia and Egypt.
Long at loggerheads with Ethiopia over the complicated dossier of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Egypt has been a key player in Somalia's security since the beginning of 2023, contributing to the training of Somali army recruits and the supply of weapons and ammunition and the care of wounded Somali soldiers in Egyptian military hospitals. Also last year, Mogadishu and Cairo began talks for closer strategic cooperation, and press rumors have been circulating for some time - so far unconfirmed - according to which Mogadishu is considering granting Egypt a military base in the center-south of the country. In addition to the common Ethiopian threat, the thaw in relations between Cairo and Mogadishu's historic ally: Turkey has also brought Egypt and Somalia closer together. A thaw that was sanctioned by the recent visit to Ankara by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al Sisi (the first since 2014). A visit that clearly and unequivocally indicated the renewed closeness between the two countries after the years of frost experienced since 2013 due to divergent positions on political Islam, but also on regional geopolitical issues. In the years following 2013, precisely in 2021, the thaw between Qatar - the main point of reference for the Muslim Brotherhood - and the block of Gulf countries formed by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, together with Egypt, has in fact opened new windows for relations between Cairo and Ankara.