Friday October 11, 2024
From left to right: Presidents Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of Somalia, Isaias Afwerki of Eritrea, alongside former Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
Mogadishu (HOL) — Somalia, Eritrea, and Egypt have formed a new trilateral alliance, signalling a major shift in the Horn of Africa's geopolitical landscape. The agreement, signed during a high-level meeting in Asmara, brings together Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in a partnership that challenges Ethiopia's regional influence.While the joint statement emphasizes cooperation in securing maritime routes in the Red Sea and Bab-el-Mandeb and protecting regional sovereignty, the alliance also speaks volumes about Ethiopia's growing isolation. The formation of this bloc could be seen as a direct response to Addis Ababa's ambition to secure access to the sea—an aim that has long troubled its neighbours.
"This seems to be a direct challenge to Addis Ababa," said Hassan Khannenje, Director of the Horn International Institute for Strategic Studies, speaking on BBC's Focus on Africa program. "The region is entering a period where alliances are not just about security but also a broader struggle for influence over resources and trade routes."
Despite its recent push to cement regional leadership under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia now faces the potential of being hemmed in by this new alliance. Both Eritrea and Egypt have long histories of friction with Ethiopia, and Somalia's closer alignment with them hints at a broader geopolitical shift.
For Somalia, the new agreement marks a major departure from past alliances. In 2018, then-President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo fostered a close relationship with Ethiopia's Abiy Ahmed and signed his own tripartite agreement, which resulted in tangible benefits, including visa-free travel for Somali citizens and joint investments in seaports.
Presidents Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of Somalia, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt, and Isaias Afwerki of Eritrea join hands in Asmara after signing a new tripartite agreement aimed at bolstering regional security and cooperation in the Horn of Africa, countering Ethiopia's growing influence.
Later that year, Abiy hosted Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki in Bahir Dar, Ethiopia, where Abiy delivered a speech to university graduates expressing hope for a future where Somalia, Ethiopia, and Eritrea would be united under one president.
"I hope that the children of these three leaders standing here today will see our three nations governed by one president instead of three," Abiy said, with Farmaajo and Afwerki standing by his side.
Ahmed Issa Awad, who served as Somalia's foreign minister during the formation of the Ethiopia-Somalia-Eritrea alliance, told the BBC that the original goal was to open up economic and social ties among the nations and extend the cooperation across the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) region.
One of the most notable was the seventh clause, which focused on joint investments in up to four seaports and the construction of connecting roadways.
Awad mentioned that while the leaders appeared united at the time, there were hidden agendas that later surfaced.
"Afwerki wanted to break his isolation, while Abiy needed Eritrea's support for a war in Tigray, so the alliance lacked clear long-term objectives," Awad said.
In the Horn of Africa, power politics is a delicate game of alliances and historic rivalries. Ethiopia, the regional power, has often found itself at odds with Eritrea and Egypt, particularly over issues like Nile water rights and sea access. The new partnership between Somalia, Eritrea, and Egypt could signal that Ethiopia's neighbours are now more willing to openly challenge its regional ambitions.
Leaders of Somalia, Eritrea, and Ethiopia — President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, President Isaias Afwerki, and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed — shake hands after signing a 2018 agreement aimed at strengthening regional cooperation and security in the Horn of Africa.
Under President Isaias Afwerki's three-decade-long leadership, Eritrea has been locked in a bitter struggle with Ethiopia for decades. This animosity dates back to the Eritrean-Ethiopian War (1998-2000), which was primarily fueled by the political and territorial ambitions of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), a dominant faction in Ethiopia's ruling coalition at the time. The conflict resulted in significant casualties and lasting scars on both nations, fostering a deep-rooted distrust that persisted even after a peace agreement was reached in 2018.
Meanwhile, Egypt's relationship with Ethiopia has soured over the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River. Egypt views the dam as a direct threat to its water security, as the Nile is the lifeblood for millions of Egyptians.
Somalia's grievances with Ethiopia are rooted in the latter's Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the breakaway region of Somaliland. The deal grants Ethiopia naval access to the Red Sea in exchange for the recognition of Somaliland's sovereignty.
The new tripartite alliance between Somalia, Eritrea, and Egypt reflects overlapping interests among these nations, particularly regarding security.
Despite the shifting alliances, Ethiopia's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Ambassador Nebiat Getachew, has downplayed the significance of this tripartite partnership. He assured reporters that relations with Eritrea remain peaceful and cooperative, stating, "There has been no change in our diplomatic ties."
- With files from the BBC Somali Service