Who is Hakan Fidan: Turkey’s diplomat steering Somalia-Ethiopia’s high-stakes negotiations

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Wednesday August 14, 2024

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan delivers a statement at a press conference held at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Ankara. He has emerged as the key mediator in the high-stakes negotiations between Somalia and Ethiopia. (Photo: Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs)

ANKARA, Türkiye (HOL) — "This isn't just about a naval base or territorial boundaries," emphasized Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan as he emerged from yet another tense meeting in Ankara. Fidan's words underscore the urgency and gravity of ongoing negotiations between Somalia and Ethiopia, two nations locked in a dispute that could shape the future of the Horn of Africa.

The ongoing dispute revolves around a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed in January 2024, which grants Ethiopia access to a naval base on a 20-kilometer stretch of Somaliland's coastline. In return, Ethiopia would recognize Somaliland's independence—an act Somalia sees as a direct threat to its territorial integrity. For Somalia, this isn't just a diplomatic spat; it's a critical defence of its sovereignty, and the outcome of these negotiations could have profound implications, not just for Somalia and Ethiopia but for the entire Horn of Africa region.

At the heart of these high-stakes negotiations is Hakan Fidan, a diplomat whose career has been defined by his ability to manage complex and contentious situations. Born in Ankara in 1968, Fidan's path to becoming one of Turkey's most influential figures began in the Turkish Armed Forces, where he served as a communications intelligence non-commissioned officer.

His military education was complemented by advanced studies abroad, particularly during his NATO assignment in Germany. It was during this time that Fidan earned a bachelor's degree in Management and Political Science from the University of Maryland University College (UMUC).

Upon returning to Turkey, Fidan continued his academic pursuits at Bilkent University, where he completed a master's degree with a thesis on "The Role of Intelligence in Foreign Policy." He further deepened his expertise with a Ph.D. from the same institution, focusing on "Diplomacy in the Information Age: The Use of Information Technologies in Verification." His academic work laid the foundation for his later roles in Turkish intelligence and diplomacy.

Fidan's transition from military service to a civilian government role began with his appointment as the President of the Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency (TIKA) in 2003. His work at TIKA and his close advisory role to then-Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu positioned him as a key figure in Turkey's foreign policy apparatus.

His military and civilian careers, combined with advanced studies in management and political science, laid the foundation for his expertise in navigating international crises.

Fidan's transition from military intelligence to diplomacy was marked by his appointment as the Undersecretary of the National Intelligence Organization (MİT) in 2010; at 42, he was the youngest person to hold the position. His tenure at MİT saw him involved in secret negotiations with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), known as the Oslo Talks. These talks, aimed at resolving the Kurdish issue, were highly controversial and a source of political tension in Turkey.

Fidan's role in Turkish intelligence also saw him navigate the turbulent waters of the July 15, 2016, coup attempt. His quick actions during the coup, which targeted him personally, were credited for being instrumental in thwarting the plot and maintaining the stability of the Turkish government. This period solidified his reputation as a trusted and reliable figure within President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's inner circle, earning him the nickname "Erdoğan's secret keeper."

In June 2023, Fidan was appointed as Turkey's Minister of Foreign Affairs, a role that has seen him at the forefront of critical diplomatic engagements, including the ongoing mediation between Somalia and Ethiopia.

Fidan's approach to the Somalia-Ethiopia negotiations has been deliberate and patient, utilizing shuttle diplomacy to keep the dialogue open between the two nations. Despite the intense pressure and the threat of talks breaking down, Fidan declared that there has been "notable progress," reflecting his ability to navigate the tensions and keep both sides engaged in the peace process.

His strategy involves a delicate balancing act, addressing the conflicting parties' immediate needs while aligning with Turkey's broader geopolitical interests, particularly in Somalia. Under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey has significantly bolstered its presence across Africa, with Somalia standing out as a focal point of these efforts. Its largest overseas embassy is in Mogadishu, and enhanced security cooperation, illustrating the depth of the relationship between the two nations. Turkish companies manage critical infrastructure, including Mogadishu's airport and seaport, while Turkey's state energy company is poised to begin oil and gas exploration off the Somali coast.

Turkey is also set to construct an embassy building for Somalia in Ankara at a cost estimated to reach over $6m.

In 2024, Turkey and Somalia signed a series of maritime and defence pacts that strengthened military cooperation and laid the groundwork for Turkey's role in securing Somalia's waters. These agreements include Turkey's commitment to help develop Somalia's naval capabilities and ensure the protection of its maritime borders, a strategic move that aligns with Turkey's own long-term security and economic interests in the region.

Fidan's success in mediating the Somalia-Ethiopia dispute is crucial not only for regional stability but also for safeguarding these extensive Turkish investments and ensuring that Turkey's influence in the Horn of Africa continues to grow.

Somalia's position in these talks is particularly precarious. The country, still recovering from decades of conflict, views any compromise on its territorial integrity as potentially catastrophic. For Somalia, the naval base represents the ongoing struggle to maintain control over its borders and prevent further fragmentation. Former Somali Prime Minister Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke has been vocal in his opposition to the MOU, warning that allowing Ethiopia a military foothold in Somali waters could destabilize the nation and the region further.

Fidan's role as mediator also reflects Turkey's broader ambitions in Africa. Through defence agreements, economic partnerships, and diplomatic initiatives, Turkey has positioned itself as a key player on the continent, with deepening military ties with Ethiopia. Turkey has become a significant player in Ethiopia's defence strategy, especially during the bloody Ethiopian civil war against the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), by providing the highly sought-after Bayraktar TB2 drones.

These drones have been described as a "game-changer" in various conflicts globally, allowing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's forces to regain ground against the TPLF.

Turkish investments in Ethiopia are substantial, with bilateral trade reaching approximately $650 million annually, and Turkish companies investing billions in the country.

Ethiopia, with a population of over 120 million and no access to the sea, views the MoU as critical to its national security and economic future.

The international community is watching closely as the third round of talks approaches on September 17. The success of these negotiations could reinforce Turkey's influence and demonstrate its capacity to act as a stabilizing force. A deal that satisfies both Somalia's and Ethiopia's needs could prevent conflict and set a precedent for peaceful dispute resolution in one of the world's most strategically important regions. For Hakan Fidan, this moment represents a defining challenge in his career—one that will test his diplomatic prowess and his ability to steer these troubled waters to a peaceful resolution.

"This is about the future of two nations and the stability of an entire region."

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