Hiiraan Online

By Mohamed Omar Hashi
07, January, 2024



The Horn of Africa, known for its complex geopolitical dynamics, has recently become the stage for an alarming turn of events. Ethiopia's unexpected assertion of its intention to annex Somali territory has sent shockwaves through the region, triggering concerns about the stability of one of Africa's most strategic areas. The gravity of this situation cannot be overstated, as Ethiopia boldly announced its intention to annex Somali territory and control crucial maritime routes. In response to this existential threat, Somalia finds itself at a crucial crossroads, requiring a swift and decisive strategy to protect its territorial integrity.
Ethiopia's assertion of its intention to annex Somali territory and control vital maritime routes signals a significant shift in regional power dynamics. The implications of such an aggressive move extend beyond the borders of Somalia, potentially disrupting the entire Horn of Africa region. The international community must pay careful attention to these developments, as the ramifications of unchecked aggression in the region could have far-reaching consequences.

Ethiopia's declaration of annexation, manifested through its audacious claims on Somali territory and the Red Sea, is a flagrant violation of international norms. The assertion of recognizing Somaliland as a sovereign state, despite its clear status as a region within Somalia, adds another layer to Ethiopia's blatant disregard for Somali sovereignty. However, Somalia and the Somali people have a long history of resilience, having successfully defended their land for five centuries. This history serves as a beacon of strength for Somalia as it faces this contemporary challenge.

In this article, we embark on an exploration of the unfolding situation, delving into the historical context that has shaped this geopolitical landscape, unravelling the motivations propelling Ethiopia's assertive stance, and dissecting the potential consequences for regional stability. As Somalia grapples with this existential challenge, we scrutinise the nation's diplomatic and national defence strategy, emphasising the imperative for a comprehensive approach to address the multifaceted dimensions of this unfolding crisis.

HISTORICAL CONTEXT: ETHIOPIA’S INTERVENTION DOCTRINE AND SOMALIA'S LEGACY OF RESISTANCE

In the intricate tapestry of Somalia's history, the commitment to safeguarding territorial boundaries is not a newfound principle; it is deeply ingrained in the struggles that have shaped the nation over the years. Central to this legacy is the 1977 conflict over the Ogaden region, which Ethiopia had annexed, underscoring the historical roots of Somalia's resilience. Delving into this historical context becomes paramount, particularly when debunking Ethiopia's claims and understanding Somalia's steadfast commitment to its sovereign integrity.

The echoes of the Ethiopian invasion of Somalia in December 2006 reverberate as a pivotal moment in the complex dynamics of the Horn of Africa. From the Somali perspective, this incursion was not just a breach of sovereignty but a blatant attempt to interfere in their internal affairs. Viewed through the lens of the Somalis, Ethiopia's intervention wasn't merely an act of force; it was perceived as an occupation, an infringement on their right to self-determination.
This intrusion served as fertile ground for the cultivation of nationalist sentiments among the Somali populace. The invasion fueled a collective resolve to resist foreign interference, and various factions found common ground in defending their homeland. Notably, Al-Shabaab, emerging as a formidable insurgent group, capitalised on these nationalist sentiments, positioning itself as a defender of Somali sovereignty against external forces.

The aftermath of the Ethiopian invasion triggered a protracted and intricate struggle in Somalia, involving a myriad of local, regional, and international actors. Contributing significantly to the destabilisation of the region, the 2006 invasion laid the groundwork for ongoing conflict and humanitarian crises in Somalia. Its repercussions persist, shaping the intricate political landscape of the Horn of Africa. Understanding Somalia's historical context is not merely a journey into the past but an essential guide to decipher the complexities that continue to unfold in the present-day struggles for sovereignty and stability.

DIPLOMATIC MOBILISATION

Facing the imminent threat of territorial encroachment, Somalia's Federal Government (SFG) is navigating a delicate diplomatic landscape, seeking to rally its allies for support. The SFG is calling on international bodies, including the United Nations Security Council, the African Union (AU), the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), the Arab League, and the East African trade block—Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)—to intervene.
The Somali president issued a plea for these organisations to "unequivocally condemn Ethiopia's serious violations and force it to return to the confines of international laws." The response from the Arab League, Egyptian foreign ministry spokesperson, and OIC was swift, with separate statements released condemning the deal as a violation of Somalia's sovereignty.
The African Union, European Union, Turkey, United Kingdom, Denmark and the United States also weighed in between urging de-escalation and emphasising the need for respect for Somalia's sovereignty. 
Diplomatic efforts must play a pivotal role in SFG National Defense Strategy. By engaging in strategic dialogue and building alliances, SFG can create a diplomatic framework that raises the political cost for any potential aggression, particularly from neighbouring Ethiopia. Strengthening ties with regional and international partners allows SFG to foster cooperation, share intelligence, and collectively address security concerns. The emphasis on diplomacy not only serves as a proactive measure to prevent conflict but also positions SFG as a responsible and collaborative player in the broader geopolitical landscape, contributing to the maintenance of peace and security in the Horn of Africa.

NATIONAL DEFENSE STRATEGY: THE NEED FOR A COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH

In response to these emerging challenges, SFG urgently requires a comprehensive National Defense Strategy to safeguard its sovereignty and protect its national interests. A robust strategy should go beyond traditional military considerations and encompass a thorough threat assessment that takes into account both conventional and unconventional security threats. By adopting a holistic approach, SFG can better address the complex and interconnected challenges it faces, including territorial disputes and maritime security concerns. Such a strategy should also emphasise diplomatic efforts, regional cooperation, and international partnerships to promote stability and security in the Horn of Africa, mitigating the risk of conflict and fostering a peaceful and cooperative regional environment.

1. Threat Assessment: Recognizing Immediate Challenges

In formulating the National Defense Strategy for SFG, it is imperative to recognize the twofold nature of the threats facing the nation. Alongside Ethiopia's territorial ambitions, persistent terrorist groups like Al-Shabaab continue to pose immediate dangers to the security and stability of Somalia. A comprehensive threat assessment must acknowledge the multifaceted challenges, integrating both the external threat posed by Ethiopia and the internal threat of terrorism. The strategy should prioritise a proactive and collaborative approach, involving regional and international partners, to neutralise these imminent dangers and safeguard the interests of Somalia. The National Defense Strategy must be dynamic, adaptable, and focused on addressing the pressing issues at hand to ensure the long-term security and well-being of the nation.

2. Objectives: Non-Provocative Defense and Diplomatic Leverage

In formulating a robust National Defense Strategy for SFG, the primary objective should be the establishment of a non-provocative defence posture. This entails structuring the country's armed forces in a manner that emphasises defensive capabilities without projecting an offensive threat. By developing a military force that is tailored for defensive purposes, SFG can dissuade potential aggressors and reduce the likelihood of conflict escalation. The focus should be on creating a resilient defence infrastructure that safeguards the nation's sovereignty and territorial integrity, sending a clear message that any hostile action will be met with a robust and effective response.

3. Operational Strategy: Mobilising the Entire Nation
A total defence posture, mobilising the entire nation's resources for national survival, is essential. The national forces should engage any attackers away from the mainland, ensuring the protection of designated sea lines of communication. An emphasis on denial forces, making invasion expensive and occupation difficult, should guide operational planning.

4. Organisational Strategy: Lean and Rapid Deployment

An organisational strategy centred on a lean but highly trained and well-equipped rapid deployment force is crucial. This force should be capable of responding swiftly to contingencies until reserves can be mobilised.

5. Doctrine Development: Reorienting to External Defense

The timing of this doctrinal shift should be meticulously planned, factoring in the evolving nature of security challenges and geopolitical dynamics. A phased approach, wherein the reorientation towards external defence is gradual and synchronised with the evolving security environment, would minimise vulnerabilities. Furthermore, engaging with international partners and drawing upon their expertise can aid SFG in developing a robust and effective defence doctrine. The reorientation towards external defence does not imply neglecting internal security concerns. Instead, it emphasises a strategic rebalancing that acknowledges the interconnectedness of internal and external threats. By fostering a comprehensive defence strategy, SFG can enhance its ability to protect its borders, contribute to regional stability, and strengthen its position on the global stage. The development of a well-crafted doctrine is the linchpin of this transformation, guiding SFG’s military evolution in the pursuit of a secure and resilient future.

CONCLUDING REMARKS

The declaration of war by Ethiopia demands an urgent and comprehensive response from Somalia. The establishment of a National Defense Strategy is not just a strategic choice; it is a necessity for the survival and sovereignty of the nation. SFG must leverage its historical resilience, rally international support, and build a defence force that not only safeguards its borders but also establishes a credible deterrent against any potential aggressor. The coming months will be crucial, and Somalia's response will shape the future of the Horn of Africa.